Labour celebrates victories but loses ground in urban and heavily Muslim areas | Local elections 2024
Labor celebrated a string of electoral successes on Friday in a set of results that party officials said showed it was heading for victory in the upcoming general election.
Beneath the euphoria of wins in places such as Blackpool, Hartlepool and Thurrock, however, lies nervousness about the party’s performance in urban areas, with campaigners warning it has lost ground in both London and Birmingham.
By Friday afternoon, the party had won more than 140 council seats and won the Blackpool South by-election with the third largest swing in post-war history. But party sources said they were not confident of winning the narrow West Midlands mayoral race and that Tory London mayoral candidate Susan Hall could also edge Sadiq Khan unexpectedly close.
Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester, said: “Labour’s strategy was to do better in parts of the country that they had lost since 2016: leave constituencies, more rural constituencies, more Tory constituencies , whiter areas. They have done better in all these areas.”
But he added: “They also saw trouble brewing on their left flank. There has been a significant loss of support in heavily Muslim areas and they are falling back slightly in progressive and student areas. It’s progress at a price.”
Allies of the Labor leader, Keir Starmersaid Friday’s results showed the wisdom of pursuing a strategy of chasing votes in the country’s Leave areas where voters abandoned them in 2019.
The party won the Blackpool South by-election with a 26% swing – the third highest since the war – as well as control of Thurrock, Hartlepool and Rushmoor councils. Ann analysis by Sky News showed that the swing to Labor was highest in the parts of the country that voted most strongly for Brexit.
The success in Hartlepool was particularly valid for the Labor leader, given his I almost gave up after the party lost a by-election soon after he took over the party. A Labor spokesman said: “Making gains here shows the party is on course to win a general election and is firmly back at the service of working people.”
Party officials were also pleased that their candidate, David Skyte, won the mayoralty in York and North Yorkshire – an area that includes Rishi Sunak’s constituency.
By Friday afternoon, the BBC predicted that if these results were repeated across the country in a general election, Labor would win around 34% of the vote, compared to 25% for the Tories.
Starmer’s campaign managers say they can win more seats than their national vote share suggests by targeting voters in more marginal parts of the country, even if it means losing support in urban areas where the party has traditionally doing well
The downsides of that strategy became apparent as Friday progressed, with officials increasingly disaffected about taking the West Midlands and more nervous about Cann winning a third term in London.
after the promotion of the newsletter
Sources said much of the loss of urban support was due to anger among Muslim and progressive voters over Starmer’s stance on Gaza.
One London Labor source said: “The surveys [which predicted a 20-point lead for Khan] were completely wrong, it will be much closer than expected.
One from Birmingham said: “I felt very hard up in Birmingham. [Akhmed Yakoob, an independent candidate] rising above 50% in some central urban areas, so the impact on Gaza may be greater than initial estimates.
The issue continues to trouble Starmer, as was shown on Friday morning when Labor unexpectedly lost control of Oldham council after losing a number of council seats to pro-Palestinian independent candidates. Later in the day, the party lost its deputy leader of Manchester Council to British Labor candidate George Galloway.
Labor in London said Gaza had alienated inner-city voters from the party, while the row over the ultra-low clean air zone had taken a toll on the outer boroughs.
A shock victory for the Conservatives in London will dominate the political agenda for days, renew questions about Labour’s environmental policy and spark anger from the party’s left. However, experts say it will not hurt the overall picture that the party is on course to win this year’s general elections.
A senior Labor source said: “Losing London would be devastating but most of the country is fine and it won’t affect the general election.”
